Núria Aquilué Junyent

Sustainable land management for complex ecosystems facing shifts in disturbance regimes
Directeur: Christian Messier
Codirecteurs: Lluis Brotons and Marie-Josée Fortin

(514)-987-3000 poste 3041
Université du Québec à Montréal
Department of Biological Science
141, Av. du Président-Kennedy
H2X 3Y7 Montréal, Québec, Canada


  • Ph.D in Environmental Sciences - Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), 2013 - present
  • M.Sc. in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems - Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) and Centre for Ecological and Forestry Applications Research (CREAF), 2010
  • Postgraduate course in Quantitative Techniques for Financial Products - Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya • BarcelonaTech (UPC), 2008
  • B.Sc. in Mathematics - Faculty of Mathematics and Statistics • UPC, 2005

Research project

In a nutshell:
Investigate interactions between vegetation dynamics, natural disturbances, and land management options in a global change context using spatially explicit landscape dynamic models

Climatic warming and land-use change are altering structure and functioning of ecosystems, compromising ecosystem goods and services supply. Scientists and ecosystem managers concerned with the maintenance of essential ecological functions and biodiversity conservation need to assess the potential consequences of their decisions at different spatio-temporal scales. Sustainable development management in the face of global change means planning for both present and future needs while recognizing climatic, socio-economic, and environmental uncertain conditions. As climate change will alter current patterns of fire frequency and intensity, sustainable forest management will be specially challenging in fire-prone landscapes but susceptible to other natural disturbances too, whose future compounded dynamics will be hardly predictable.

Managers are challenged to address multi-objective decisions for complex social-ecological systems under shifting natural disturbance regimes. However, guiding the decision making process in a complex and dynamic world is not an easy task. In this project, I will use the Mediterranean and the Boreal ecosystems as examples of socio-ecological systems in which increasingly human interests on land resources will be in conflict with altered fires regimes. For these two fire-prone ecosystems, I will investigate the interactions at landscape scale between land-use changes, forest management, fire regime, and vegetation dynamics in a climate change context. An assessment of alternative management options aiming at reduce the negative effects of fires on ecosystems while enhancing overall resilience to current and future natural disturbances will be carried out using spatially explicit landscape models integrating vegetation dynamics, natural perturbations, land-use change transitions, and forest management. The project outcome will be a set of alternative scenarios assessments of multi-objective management options for fire-prone landscapes facing global change, besides a toolbox of spatially explicit landscape models accounting for the main Mediterranean and Boreal ecosystems' components and processes.

The Mediterranean

Alt Urgell, Catalonia

In the European Mediterranean basin, fires and land-use changes have historically shaped terrestrial ecosystems leading to heterogeneous fragmented landscape mosaics. Current continuous vegetation-cover matrixes, the spreading of vulnerable wildland-urban interface areas, and increasing available fuel-load in forests have arisen from more recent and acute processes: rural abandonment, downturn of active forest management, urban sprawl, and fire policies promoting total extinction and less prevention. The scientific and social communities are still debating the effects of high fire suppression rates on fuel accumulation and their consequences on fire hazard, being even more challenging when considered over large managed landscapes under climate change conditions.

I aim at investigating alternative measures in a highly humanized Mediterranean landscape prone to fire by studying the spatial interactions between natural- and human- induced disturbances under future climatic and socio-economic conditions. I will evaluate the effects on fire regime and forest structure when combining fire suppression strategies and fuel management under different climatic scenarios. I will couple two spatially explicit landscape dynamic model to investigate the interacting processes modulating Mediterranean regions: the MEDFIRE, a fire-succession model, and the MEDLUC, a land-use model. For more information visit the MED-LDM project .

The Boreal

Forêt Montmorency, Québec

Northern ecosystems show an elevate degree of landscape diversity, regional environmental adaptability, and natural disturbance resilience (mainly wildfires and insect outbreaks). But harvesting activities, fire suppression legacies, and climate warming may alter regeneration potential, growing conditions, and disturbance regimes. Even though in eastern boreal Canada fire predictions lead future burn rates to get closer to the upper boundaries of the natural range of variability, a rise in fire activity will drive current harvesting practices to be increasingly competing with fire. The certainty that climate change will impact directly and indirectly on insects survival and dispersal capacities, constraints boreal forest managers to evaluate alternative strategies in terms of resistance to insect attacks. All these new complex feedback interactions between climate, vegetation dynamics, wildfires, and insects will cause unknown variations on long-term carbon carrying capacity of boreal forests.

I aim at assessing alternative forest management options based on the TRIADE approach. Multi-objective strategies will focus on reducing fire and insect landscape vulnerability and guarantee a long-term net ecosystem carbon balance close to zero. I will use the spatially explicit forest model VLM that reproduces the main natural- and human- induced ecosystem processes in boreal landscapes, and the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to investigate the effects of wildfires and management activities on the carbon balance.


Peer-Reviewed Articles

  1. Aquilué N., De Cáceres M., Fortin, M.-J., Fall, A., Brotons L. (2017). A spatial allocation procedure to model land-use/land-cover changes: accounting for occurrence and spread processes. Ecological Modelling 344:73-86. (Ecological Modelling )
  2. Duane A., Aquilué N., Gil-Tena A., Brotons L. (2016). Integrating fire spread patterns in fire modelling at landscape scale. Environmental Modelling and Software 86:219-231. (Environmental Modelling and Software )
  3. Gil-Tena A., Aquilué N., Duane A., De Cáceres M., Brotons L. (2016). Mediterranean fire regime effects on pine-oak forest landscape mosaics under global change in NE Spain. European Journal of Forest Research 135(2):403-416. (European Journal of Forest Research )
  4. Regos, A., Aquilué, N., López, I., Codina, M., Retana J., Brotons, L. (2016). Synergies between forest biomass extraction for bioenergy and fire suppression in Mediterranean ecosystems: insights from a storyline-and-simulation approach. Ecosystems 19:786–802. (Ecosystems )
  5. Wallace, J., Aquilué, N., Archambault, C., Carpentier, S., Francoeur, X., Greffard, M., Laforest, I., Galicia, L., Messier. C. (2015). Present forest management structures and policies in temperate forests of Mexico : Challenges and prospects for unique tree species assemblages. The Forestry Chronicle 91(3):306-317. (The Forestry Chronicle )
  6. Cardador, L., De Cáceres, M., Giralt, D., Bota, G., Aquilué N., Arroyo, B., Mougeot, F., Cantero-Martínez, C., Viladomiu, L., Rosell, J., Casas, F., Estrada, A., Álvaro-Fuentes, J., Brotons, L. (2015). Tools for exploring habitat suitability for steppe birds under land use change scenarios. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 200:119-125. (Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment )
  7. Regos, A., Aquilué, N., Retana J., De Cáceres, M., Brotons, L. (2014). Using Unplanned Fires to Help Suppressing Future Large Fires in Mediterranean Forests. PLoS ONE 9(4):e94906. (PLoS ONE )
  8. Brotons, L., Aquilué, N., de Cáceres, M., Fortin, M.-J., Fall, A. (2013). How Fire History, Fire Suppression Practices and Climate Change Affect Wildfire Regimes in Mediterranean Landscapes. PLoS ONE 8:1-12. (PLoS ONE )
  9. De Cáceres, M., Brotons, L., Aquilué, N., Fortin, M.-J. (2013). The combined effects of land-use legacies and novel fire regimes on bird distributions in the Mediterranean. Journal of Biogeography 40:1535-1547. (Journal of Biogeography )

Master's Thesis

Aquilué, N. (2010). Calibració d'un model espacio-temporal de paisatge: l'impacte del règim d'incendis a Catalunya. Master's Thesis, UAB - CREAF.

  1. Aquilué, N., Duane, A., Gil-Tena, A., Fortin, M.J., Messier, C., Brotons, L. (2016). Evaluating forest and fire management effects on landscape dynamics: a modeling approach in Mediterranean ecosystems. The International Society for Ecological Modelling Global Conference, Towson University, MD, USA, 8-12 May 2016.
  2. Aquilué, N., Gil-Tena, A., Fortin, M.-J., Brotons, L. (2016). Reversing rural abandonment trends to mitigate large fire impacts on Mediterranean forest ecosystems. 10e Colloque annuel du CEF, UQAM, Montréal, Canada, 2-3 May 2016.
  3. Aquilué, N., Fortin, M.J, Messier, C., Brotons, L. (2015). Transforming a EU Mediterranean landscape matrix: reversing rural abandonment to reinforce large scale resistance to wildfires. 9th International Association for Landscape Ecology (IALE) World Congress, Portland, Oregon, USA, 5-10 July 2015.
  4. Gil-Tena, A., Aquilué, N., De Cáceres, M., Brotons, L. (2014). Effects of fire regime changes on the extent and seral statge structure of Mediterranean pines: a landscape dynamics modelling approach. 5th International Conference on Mediterranean Pines (Medpine5), Solsona, Spain, 22-26 September 2014.
  5. Regos, A., Aquilué, N., Gil-Tena, A., Duane, A., De Cáceres, M., Brotons, L. (2014). MEDFIRE model: A spatially-explicit tool aimed at supporting fire and forest management decisions in Mediterranean regions. FIREeffiecient Workshop, Solsona, Spain, 25 June 2014.
  6. Regos, A., Brotons, L., Aquilué, N., De Cáceres, M. (2013). Uso de estrategias oportunistas de extinción para reducir el impacto de los incendios en condiciones climáticas extremas. 6º Congreso Forestal Español, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain, 10-14 June 2013.
  7. Gil-Tena, A., De Cáceres, M., Aquilué, N., Regos, A., Villero, D., Saura, S., Brotons, L. (2013). Modelización del hábitat de Pino laricio (Pinus nigra spp salzmannii) y de los cambios en su conectividad dentro de la Red Natura 2000 en futuros escenarios de cambio climático. 6º Congreso Forestal Español, Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain, 10-14 June 2013.

Work experience

  • Research technician at the Biodiversity and Landscape Ecology Lab (Forest Sciences Center of Catalonia, Catalonia, Spain. Jul 2010 – Aug 2013)
- Desing, implementation, calibration, and validation of landscape dynamic models (LDMs) using the modeling platform SELES® (Spatially Explicit Landscape Event Simulator) and R for the statistical analysis.
  • GIS programmer with the GRUMETS (Methods and Applications in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems) research group (UAB, Catalonia, Spain. Oct 2009 – Jun 2010)
- Program Remote Sensing and GIS applications in language C for the GIS software MiraMon®.
  • Programmer and Database manager at SegurCaixa Holding, S.A. (Barcelona, Spain. May 2006 – Set 2009)
- Database design and management for controlling financial investments protocols and optimizing investment & cost-effectiveness reports generation.

Teaching experience

  • M.Sc. student co-supervision:
García, C. (2012) Modelització del Creixement de les espècies Pinus nigra i Quercus ilex a Catalunya. Master's Thesis, UAB - CREAF.
  • Auxiliary teaching staff:
Statistics II. Faculty of Informatics, UPC. 2001 – 2002 and 2002 – 2003 academic courses

Scholarships & Awards

  • Scholarship for finishing graduate students by the Forest Complexity Modelling program (2016-2017, NSERC)
  • Excellence scholarship for graduate students of the Faculty of Sciences (2015-2016, Fondation de l'UQAM)
  • Excellence scholarship for graduate students of the Faculty of Sciences (2014-2015, Fondation de l'UQAM)
  • Excellence scholarship for graduate students of the Faculty of Sciences (2013-2014, Fondation de l'UQAM)
  • Ph.D. partial fellowship by the Forest Complexity Modelling program (2013-2016, NSERC)
  • Supplemental tuition fee exemption scholarship (2013-2016, AGAUR, Generalitat de Catalunya)
  • Grant to the highest global grade on the M.Sc. in Remote Sensing and GIS (2010, UAB and CREAF).
  • European mobility scholarship for one academic semester at Universidade do Porto, Portugal (2004, UPC)
  • ERASMUS fellowship for one academic course at Università degli Studi di Roma “La Sapienza”, Italy (2003, European Community and UPC)


  • Programming languages: C, R - Rtools - Rmarkdown, MATLAB, and Visual Basic
  • Landscape dynamics modeling: SELES
  • Geographic Information Systems: ArcGis, MiraMon, and ENVI
  • Database: Access, SQL, and SQL Server
  • Web map service: MapServer, GeoServer, and MiraMon Map Server
  • Version control system: Git and GitHub

********************************************************** ***************** Colloque du CEF ************************ **********************************************************

1 et 2 mai 2017
Coeur des sciences de l'UQAM

********************************************************** ***************** Mycorhizes 2017 **************************** **********************************************************

10-11 mai | Université Laval

********************************************************** ***************** R à Québec **************************** **********************************************************

25-26 mai | Université Laval

********************************************************** ***************** Formation CEF **************************** **********************************************************


Introduction à GGPlot2 
13 avril 2017 à l'UQAM | 20 avril 2017 à l'UQAT

********************************************************** ***************** Cours du CEF **************************** **********************************************************

Cours du CEF

Analyse des pistes et modélisation par équations structurelles pour écologistes 
1–5 mai 2017 | Université de Sherbrooke
Path analysis and structural equation modelling for ecologists 
May 1–5 2017 | Université de Sherbrooke
8e Semaine de Dendroécologie de la FERLD 
16–21 mai 2017 | FERLD
Cours d'été: Terrain avancé en environnement (GÉO 6041) 
Cours aux cycles supérieurs de 3 crédits offert par François Girard, du 2 au 7 juillet 2017 à la Forêt Montmorency non loin de Québec.
Cours d’été en statistiques bayésiennes – Summer school in Bayesian statistics 
École d’été en statistiques bayésiennes. Maximum de 20 participants.
14 au 18 août | Orford Musique (à 30 minutes de Sherbrooke)
Aménagement des écosystèmes forestiers (ENV7010) 
14 au 25 août 2017, FERLD, Abitibi
Cours sur la complexité 
24-29 septembre 2017, Toscane, Italie

********************************************************** ***************** Maudite pub - Budworm ****************** **********************************************************

********************************************************** ***************** Maudite pub - Colibri **************************** **********************************************************

********************************************************** ***************** Maudite pub - NewForest **************************** **********************************************************

********************************************************** ********** Maudite pub 6 - Au coeur de l'arbre *********** **********************************************************

...Une exposition
virtuelle sur l'arbre!

********************************************************** ***************** Boîte à trucs *************** **********************************************************

La référence vedette !

Jérémie Alluard (2016) Les statistiques au moments de la rédaction 

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