AbbottJonesSchuurEtAl2016

Référence

Abbott, B.W., Jones, J.B., Schuur, E.A.G., Chapin Iii, F.S., Bowden, W.B., Bret-Harte, M.S., Epstein, H.E., Flannigan, M.D., Harms, T.K., Hollingsworth, T.N., Mack, M.C., McGuire, A.D., Natali, S.M., Rocha, A.V., Tank, S.E., Turetsky, M.R., Vonk, J.E., Wickland, K.P., Aiken, G.R., Alexander, H.D., Amon, R.M.W., Benscoter, B.W., Bergeron, Y., Bishop, K., Blarquez, O., Bond-Lamberty, B., Breen, A.L., Buffam, I., Cai, Y., Carcaillet, C., Carey, S.K., Chen, J.M., Chen, H.Y.H., Christensen, T.R., Cooper, L.W., Cornelissen, J.H.C., De Groot, W.J., Deluca, T.H., Dorrepaal, E., Fetcher, N., Finlay, J.C., Forbes, B.C., French, N.H.F., Gauthier, S., Girardin, M.P., Goetz, S.J., Goldammer, J.G., Gough, L., Grogan, P., Guo, L., Higuera, P.E., Hinzman, L., Hu, F.S., Hugelius, G., Jafarov, E.E., Jandt, R., Johnstone, J.F., Karlsson, J., Kasischke, E.S., Kattner, G., Kelly, R., Keuper, F., Kling, G.W., Kortelainen, P., Kouki, J., Kuhry, P., Laudon, H., Laurion, I., MacDonald, R.W., Mann, P.J., Martikainen, P.J., McClelland, J.W., Molau, U., Oberbauer, S.F., Olefeldt, D., Pare, D., Parisien, M.-A., Payette, S., Peng, C., Pokrovsky, O.S., Rastetter, E.B., Raymond, P.A., Raynolds, M.K., Rein, G., Reynolds, J.F., Robards, M., Rogers, B.M., Schdel, C., Schaefer, K., Schmidt, I.K., Shvidenko, A., Sky, J., Spencer, R.G.M., Starr, G., Striegl, R.G., Teisserenc, R., Tranvik, L.J., Virtanen, T., Welker, J.M. and Zimov, S. (2016) Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 11(3). (Scopus )

Résumé

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd.

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@ARTICLE { AbbottJonesSchuurEtAl2016,
    AUTHOR = { Abbott, B.W. and Jones, J.B. and Schuur, E.A.G. and Chapin Iii, F.S. and Bowden, W.B. and Bret-Harte, M.S. and Epstein, H.E. and Flannigan, M.D. and Harms, T.K. and Hollingsworth, T.N. and Mack, M.C. and McGuire, A.D. and Natali, S.M. and Rocha, A.V. and Tank, S.E. and Turetsky, M.R. and Vonk, J.E. and Wickland, K.P. and Aiken, G.R. and Alexander, H.D. and Amon, R.M.W. and Benscoter, B.W. and Bergeron, Y. and Bishop, K. and Blarquez, O. and Bond-Lamberty, B. and Breen, A.L. and Buffam, I. and Cai, Y. and Carcaillet, C. and Carey, S.K. and Chen, J.M. and Chen, H.Y.H. and Christensen, T.R. and Cooper, L.W. and Cornelissen, J.H.C. and De Groot, W.J. and Deluca, T.H. and Dorrepaal, E. and Fetcher, N. and Finlay, J.C. and Forbes, B.C. and French, N.H.F. and Gauthier, S. and Girardin, M.P. and Goetz, S.J. and Goldammer, J.G. and Gough, L. and Grogan, P. and Guo, L. and Higuera, P.E. and Hinzman, L. and Hu, F.S. and Hugelius, G. and Jafarov, E.E. and Jandt, R. and Johnstone, J.F. and Karlsson, J. and Kasischke, E.S. and Kattner, G. and Kelly, R. and Keuper, F. and Kling, G.W. and Kortelainen, P. and Kouki, J. and Kuhry, P. and Laudon, H. and Laurion, I. and MacDonald, R.W. and Mann, P.J. and Martikainen, P.J. and McClelland, J.W. and Molau, U. and Oberbauer, S.F. and Olefeldt, D. and Pare, D. and Parisien, M.-A. and Payette, S. and Peng, C. and Pokrovsky, O.S. and Rastetter, E.B. and Raymond, P.A. and Raynolds, M.K. and Rein, G. and Reynolds, J.F. and Robards, M. and Rogers, B.M. and Schdel, C. and Schaefer, K. and Schmidt, I.K. and Shvidenko, A. and Sky, J. and Spencer, R.G.M. and Starr, G. and Striegl, R.G. and Teisserenc, R. and Tranvik, L.J. and Virtanen, T. and Welker, J.M. and Zimov, S. },
    TITLE = { Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: An expert assessment },
    JOURNAL = { Environmental Research Letters },
    YEAR = { 2016 },
    VOLUME = { 11 },
    NUMBER = { 3 },
    NOTE = { cited By 0 },
    ABSTRACT = { As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%-85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced. © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd. },
    ART_NUMBER = { 034014 },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { Arctic; boreal; coastal erosion; dissolved organic carbon; particulate organic carbon; permafrost carbon; wildfire },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014 },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84962306957&partnerID=40&md5=6fe2fad671feef44524fa85fe6b53df4 },
}

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