MarchandCarrDellAngeloEtAl2016

Référence

Marchand, P., Carr, J.A., Dell'Angelo, J., Fader, M., Gephart, J.A., Kummu, M., Magliocca, N.R., Porkka, M., Puma, M.J., Ratajczak, Z., Rulli, M.C., Seekell, D.A., Suweis, S., Tavoni, A., D'Odorico, P. (2016) Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks. Environmental Research Letters, 11(9). (Scopus )

Résumé

While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations. © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd.

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@ARTICLE { MarchandCarrDellAngeloEtAl2016,
    AUTHOR = { Marchand, P. and Carr, J.A. and Dell'Angelo, J. and Fader, M. and Gephart, J.A. and Kummu, M. and Magliocca, N.R. and Porkka, M. and Puma, M.J. and Ratajczak, Z. and Rulli, M.C. and Seekell, D.A. and Suweis, S. and Tavoni, A. and D'Odorico, P. },
    TITLE = { Reserves and trade jointly determine exposure to food supply shocks },
    JOURNAL = { Environmental Research Letters },
    YEAR = { 2016 },
    VOLUME = { 11 },
    NUMBER = { 9 },
    NOTE = { cited By 25 },
    ABSTRACT = { While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations. © 2016 IOP Publishing Ltd. },
    AFFILIATION = { National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC), Annapolis, MD 21401, United States; Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, United States; International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change (UNESCO), German Federal Institute of Hydrology, PO Box 200253, Koblenz, D-56002, Germany; Water and Development Research Group (WDRG), Aalto University, Aalto, FI-00076, Finland; Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, United States; Department of Hydraulics, Roadways Environmental and Surveying Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, I-20133, Italy; Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Ume, SE-901 87, Sweden; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Padova, Padova, I-35131, Italy; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics, London, WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom },
    ART_NUMBER = { 095009 },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { food crises; food systems; resilience },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095009 },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84992046729&doi=10.1088%2f1748-9326%2f11%2f9%2f095009&partnerID=40&md5=01fe6526e8113e9e0eb787d42f2edc10 },
}

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