BoucherBoulangerAubinEtAl2018

Référence

Boucher, D., Boulanger, Y., Aubin, I., Bernier, P.Y., Beaudoin, A., Guindon, L. and Gauthier, S. (2018) Current and projected cumulative impacts of fire, drought, and insects on timber volumes across Canada. Ecological Applications, 28(5):1245-1259. (Scopus )

Résumé

Canada's forests are shaped by disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and droughts that often overlap in time and space. The resulting cumulative disturbance risks and potential impacts on forests are generally not well accounted for by models used to predict future impacts of disturbances on forest. This study aims at projecting future cumulative effects of four main natural disturbances, fire, mountain pine beetle, spruce budworm and drought, on timber volumes across Canada's forests using an approach that accounts for potential overlap among disturbances. Available predictive models for the four natural disturbances were used to project timber volumes at risk under aggressive climate forcing up to 2100. Projections applied to the current vegetation suggest increases of volumes at risk related to fire, mountain pine beetle, and drought over time in many regions of Canada, but a decrease of the volume at risk related to spruce budworm. When disturbance effects are accumulated, important changes in volumes at risk are projected to occur as early as 2011–2041, particularly in central and eastern Canada. In our last simulation period covering 2071–2100, nearly all timber volumes in most of Canada's forest regions could be at risk of being affected by at least one of the four natural disturbances considered in our analysis, a six-fold increase relative to the baseline period (1981–2010). Tree species particularly vulnerable to specific disturbances (e.g., trembling aspen to drought) could suffer disproportionate increases in their volume at risk with potential impacts on forest composition. By 2100, estimated wood volumes not considered to be at risk could be lower than current annual timber harvests in central and eastern Canada. Current level of harvesting could thus be difficult to maintain without the implementation of adaptation measures to cope with these disturbances. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America

Format EndNote

Vous pouvez importer cette référence dans EndNote.

Format BibTeX-CSV

Vous pouvez importer cette référence en format BibTeX-CSV.

Format BibTeX

Vous pouvez copier l'entrée BibTeX de cette référence ci-bas, ou l'importer directement dans un logiciel tel que JabRef .

@ARTICLE { BoucherBoulangerAubinEtAl2018,
    AUTHOR = { Boucher, D. and Boulanger, Y. and Aubin, I. and Bernier, P.Y. and Beaudoin, A. and Guindon, L. and Gauthier, S. },
    TITLE = { Current and projected cumulative impacts of fire, drought, and insects on timber volumes across Canada },
    JOURNAL = { Ecological Applications },
    YEAR = { 2018 },
    VOLUME = { 28 },
    NUMBER = { 5 },
    PAGES = { 1245-1259 },
    NOTE = { cited By 0 },
    ABSTRACT = { Canada's forests are shaped by disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and droughts that often overlap in time and space. The resulting cumulative disturbance risks and potential impacts on forests are generally not well accounted for by models used to predict future impacts of disturbances on forest. This study aims at projecting future cumulative effects of four main natural disturbances, fire, mountain pine beetle, spruce budworm and drought, on timber volumes across Canada's forests using an approach that accounts for potential overlap among disturbances. Available predictive models for the four natural disturbances were used to project timber volumes at risk under aggressive climate forcing up to 2100. Projections applied to the current vegetation suggest increases of volumes at risk related to fire, mountain pine beetle, and drought over time in many regions of Canada, but a decrease of the volume at risk related to spruce budworm. When disturbance effects are accumulated, important changes in volumes at risk are projected to occur as early as 2011–2041, particularly in central and eastern Canada. In our last simulation period covering 2071–2100, nearly all timber volumes in most of Canada's forest regions could be at risk of being affected by at least one of the four natural disturbances considered in our analysis, a six-fold increase relative to the baseline period (1981–2010). Tree species particularly vulnerable to specific disturbances (e.g., trembling aspen to drought) could suffer disproportionate increases in their volume at risk with potential impacts on forest composition. By 2100, estimated wood volumes not considered to be at risk could be lower than current annual timber harvests in central and eastern Canada. Current level of harvesting could thus be difficult to maintain without the implementation of adaptation measures to cope with these disturbances. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America },
    AFFILIATION = { Laurentian Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 1055 du P.E.P.S., P.O. Box 10380, Station Sainte-Foy, Quebec City, QC, Canada; Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste Marie, ON, Canada },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { Canadian forest; climate change; disturbance predictive models; drought; fire; mountain pine beetle; natural disturbances; spruce budworm; timber volume at risk },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.1002/eap.1724 },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85049352161&doi=10.1002%2feap.1724&partnerID=40&md5=34247e7b7a83513a353fd5523571693d },
}

********************************************************** ***************** Facebook Twitter *********************** **********************************************************

Abonnez-vous à
l'Infolettre du CEF!

********************************************************** ************* Colloque **************************** **********************************************************

1er au 3 mai 2019
UQAC

********************************************************** ********************* Traits **************************** **********************************************************

********************************************************** ************* Écoles d'été et formation **************************** **********************************************************

Écoles d'été et formations

Cours intensif sur l'analyse des pistes 
6-10 mai 2019, Université de Sherbrooke
Cours intensif : Taxonomie et méthodes d’échantillonnage en tourbières 
6-17 mai 2019, Université Laval
Dendrochronological Fieldweek 2019 
16-21 mai 2019, Station FERLD
Traits Fonctionnels des Organismes - École thématique internationale 
19-24 mai 2019, Porquerolles, France
Cours aux cycles supérieurs: Terrain avancé en géographie 
10-15 juin 2019, FERLD, Abitibi-Témiscamingue
École d'été « Drones et télédétection environnementale » 
13-14 juin 2019, Sherbrooke
Ecole d'été en Biologie et Ecologie intégratives 
6-12 juillet 2019, Pyrénées françaises
École d'été en modélisation de la biodiversité 
19-23 août 2019, Orford
Cours aux cycles supérieurs: Aménagement des écosystèmes forestiers 
19-30 août 2019, Station FERLD

********************************************************** ***************** Pub - Symphonies_Boreales ****************** **********************************************************

********************************************************** ***************** Boîte à trucs *************** **********************************************************

CEF-Référence
La référence vedette !

Jérémie Alluard (2016) Les statistiques au moments de la rédaction 

  • Ce document a pour but de guider les étudiants à intégrer de manière appropriée une analyse statistique dans leur rapport de recherche.

Voir les autres...