ErniJohnstonBoulangerEtAl2021

Référence

Erni, S., Johnston, L., Boulanger, Y., Manka, F., Bernier, P., Eddy, B., Christianson, A., Swystun, T., Gauthier, S. (2021) Exposure of the canadian wildland–human interface and population to wildland fire, under current and future climate conditions. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 51(9):1357-1367. (Scopus )

Résumé

In Canada, recent fire seasons have demonstrated the threat of wildland fire in the wildland–human interface (WHI) areas, where forest fuels intermingle with or abut housing, industry, and infrastructure. Although fire activity is expected to increase further in the coming decades as a result of climate change, no WHI-specific estimates of wildland fire exposure are currently available. This study combines spatial and demographic information sources to estimate the current and future wildland fire exposures, as reflected by fire return intervals (FRI) of WHI areas and populations across Canada. The WHI covers 17.3% of the forested area in Canada. Within the WHI, we found that 19.4% of the area currently experiences FRI of ≤250 years, but by the end of the century, this could increase to 28.8% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and to 43.3% under RCP 8.5. Approximately 12.3% of the Canadian population currently live in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), which includes 32.1% of the on-reserve First Nations population. Currently, 17.8% of the on-reserve WUI population is exposed to FRI of ≤250 years, compared with only 4.7% of the remaining WUI population. By 2100, these proportions could reach 39.3% and 17.4%, respectively, under the less optimistic climatic scenarios (RCP 8.5). © Canadian Science Publishing. All rights reserved.

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@ARTICLE { ErniJohnstonBoulangerEtAl2021,
    AUTHOR = { Erni, S. and Johnston, L. and Boulanger, Y. and Manka, F. and Bernier, P. and Eddy, B. and Christianson, A. and Swystun, T. and Gauthier, S. },
    JOURNAL = { Canadian Journal of Forest Research },
    TITLE = { Exposure of the canadian wildland–human interface and population to wildland fire, under current and future climate conditions },
    YEAR = { 2021 },
    NOTE = { cited By 0 },
    NUMBER = { 9 },
    PAGES = { 1357-1367 },
    VOLUME = { 51 },
    ABSTRACT = { In Canada, recent fire seasons have demonstrated the threat of wildland fire in the wildland–human interface (WHI) areas, where forest fuels intermingle with or abut housing, industry, and infrastructure. Although fire activity is expected to increase further in the coming decades as a result of climate change, no WHI-specific estimates of wildland fire exposure are currently available. This study combines spatial and demographic information sources to estimate the current and future wildland fire exposures, as reflected by fire return intervals (FRI) of WHI areas and populations across Canada. The WHI covers 17.3% of the forested area in Canada. Within the WHI, we found that 19.4% of the area currently experiences FRI of ≤250 years, but by the end of the century, this could increase to 28.8% under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and to 43.3% under RCP 8.5. Approximately 12.3% of the Canadian population currently live in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), which includes 32.1% of the on-reserve First Nations population. Currently, 17.8% of the on-reserve WUI population is exposed to FRI of ≤250 years, compared with only 4.7% of the remaining WUI population. By 2100, these proportions could reach 39.3% and 17.4%, respectively, under the less optimistic climatic scenarios (RCP 8.5). © Canadian Science Publishing. All rights reserved. },
    AFFILIATION = { Natural Resources Canada, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada; Natural Resources Canada, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, 1055 du P.E.P.S., P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Sainte-Foy, Québec, QC G1V 4C7, Canada; Natural Resources Canada, Atlantic Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, 26 University Drive, P.O. Box 960, Corner Brook, NL A2H 6J3, Canada; Natural Resources Canada, Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, 5320-122nd Street, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada },
    AUTHOR_KEYWORDS = { Climate change; Communities; First Nations; Wildfire exposure; Wildland–urban interface },
    DOCUMENT_TYPE = { Article },
    DOI = { 10.1139/cjfr-2020-0422 },
    SOURCE = { Scopus },
    URL = { https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85114284674&doi=10.1139%2fcjfr-2020-0422&partnerID=40&md5=5ca92c42c0b7294ce3979cc4d8340e89 },
}

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